Okay. Breathe in, breathe out. Breathe in. Breath out.

Calmer? No? Let’s try it again. Breathe in. Breath out. Breath in. Breath out.

Okay then. Let’s get to it.

The Yankees have some serious problems going on right now. In order of perceived importance, I will list them as follow:

1) Injuries. Nick Johnson, Jorge Posada, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher, now Marcus Thames, and God knows what Andy Pettitte’s elbow is thinking.

2) A bullpen that is, well, doing it’s best to imitate Arizona (if you’re not familiar, look it up).

3) Derek Jeter

4) Marcus Thames in the field, anywhere

Wow. You know what’s impressive? Javier Vazquez doesn’t even make the list, and still I guarantee someone will find a way to blame Javy.

Anyway, let’s go through these, as best we can. Let’s identify the problems, and, if possible, offer some solutions.

1) Injuries.

This is far and away the biggest issue the Yankees have right now. Nick Johnson and Jorge Posada are more or less sidelined for at least a month–with Johnson, probably longer. Curtis Granderson has been out basically a month. Nick Swisher has a funky bicep. Marcus Thames tripped over his my-god-we’re-the-Mets bat. Andy Pettitte has a somewhat fragile elbow.

It is, unfortunately, becoming reminiscent of 2008, when the Yankees were depleted by injuries and unable to recover. The difference is that the starting pitching is a lot better than it was in 2008, but no team can loose nearly half of it’s regular batting order and not suffer.

In some instances, it’s almost easier for a team when a player suffers a long term injury, since it allows management more flexibility in terms of roster management. When players are nicked and bruised, but not enough for the DL, the team can’t really make a whole lot of moves.

Tonight, the bench was Ramiro Peña and he had to come in and play for Thames. What, I wonder, would have happened had someone else been hurt or ejected? Can Boone Logan play left field? Does David Robertson know how to swing a bat?

There’s no easy fix for injuries, unless a team has a stacked farm system (at the upper levels, the Yankees do not) or else a very, very deep and well constructed 40 man roster.

Do the Yankees have enough depth? It’s hard to say, and this brings me to point two.

2) The Arson Squad

If your ace pitches you seven innings of one run ball and your team has a lead of more than one run, you have to hold that lead in the eighth inning. You absolutely have to.

Right now, there is no one in the Yankee bullpen that can necessarily be trusted to accomplish this task. This is a problem as much as the Yankees not really having a long reliever, thus the necessity of Javier Vazquez appearing out of the bullpen.

If Joe Girardi is going to carry an eight man bullpen, and we know how much he loves his lefty pitchers, the bullpen men have got to find a way to get the job done–we can only expect Randy Winn, Ramiro Peña and Juan Miranda to stage so many ninth inning comebacks.

The Year of the Walkoff was wonderful, but it isn’t still 2009. The Yankees can’t assume that what worked for them last season will work for them this season.

That brings me to problem three.

3) Derek Jeter

Let’s say your team is trailing by a manageable, still-tie-able-with-one-swing four runs.

Let’s say you’re the home team and you’ve got the bases loaded in the sixth inning, and the starter looks absolutely cooked.

Let’s say you’re the batter at the plate and you’ve gone up 3-0. You’re the leadoff man, which means the team’s best hitters are right behind you.

You have utterly got to find a way to get on base and keep the inning rolling. Forget a grand slam or even a hit; on a 3-0 count, a walk is a very real possibility. It’s one thing if you’re battling Greinke or Halladay, but Wade Davis, as far as I know, is not one of those two.

Larger picture: if you’re playing with a short lineup–and for the forseeable future, the Yankees will be–the Yankees’ lead off man has got to actually be able to work counts and get on base. Derek Jeter hasn’t been doing much of that recently.

Tonight, two various lineup solutions, using the current cast of characters, presented themselves.

1: Keep the line up as is, but switch Garder and Jeter, and 2: Drop Jeter way down and have Gardner-Cervelli hit 1-2.

I’m a fan of option two.

Last season, Jeter was moved to the leadoff position in order to keep away from the double play, given his ground ball proclivities (as we saw the other day, nearly 70%).

Speedy McSpeederson works counts, makes contact on pitches in the strike zone, steals bases, is a fan-dubbed “professional wreakor of havoc” and has a nice, shiny, Nick Johnsian .405 OBP. (Derek Jeter has a .312 OBP. Um. Yeah. That’s not gonna do it).

Yes, there is a very real argument to be made that Gardner’s OBP is unsustainable. It probably his–his .364 BABIP is likely unsustainable as well.

That doesn’t mean you can’t ride him while he’s hot, so to speak, and for the time being, hit him lead off. He may yet surprise us.

This brings us to who hits second in the lineup.

If Jeter hits second again, you once again bring up the double play possibilities. Yes, Gardner is fast, but Jeter’s nigh-on-70% ground ball rate–and many of these are ground balls to short or second–is just asking for it. You can’t ask Gardner to be beating out double plays nine times out of ten.

So, who do you, in a short line up, hit second?

You’re probably not going to move Teixeira or A-Rod out of the three and four spots. Robinson Canó, doncha know, is the someone that is needed to protect A-Rod, May OPS’s of .660 notwithstanding.

After Canó, you hit The Dropoff, where the lineup goes from one of the best in the Majors, to something that could maybe work in the National League Central, with, if we assume Thames is out for a few games at least, Cervelli-Miranda-Winn-Peña.

Of those four, Cervelli is the one that is most intriguing.

Cervelli never was supposed to hit, at all, but he keeps doing that–and not just hitting, but finding ways to advance a runner when need be. He’s pretty fast–especially for a catcher, and, well, he’s already hitting sixth.

Okay, so his BABIP of .429 is the definition of unsustainable, but again, we’re talking about a ride-em-while-they’re-hot philosophy.

For just one game, it can’t hurt too much to try it, right? I know Girardi never will, but trying just once might do something–when the Yankees were going rough, Joe Torre would completley screw with the lineup, just to see if he could get the team back on track.

It might be time for Girardi to try it.

Look, Jeter’s slash line is .266/.312/.387. He hasn’t hit under .270 since 1995–the year he broke in. With the exception of 1995, he’s never had an OBP worse than .350, and never a slugging percentage under .400.

In short, Jeter, in his age 36 season, and in a walk year–when players typically outperform their expectations–is thus far having the worst season of his career. The April numbers are respectable enough, but May’s .189/.268 /.230/.498 is downright scary.

I realize that with some luck, this is just Jeter playing through some minor injury and that come June he’ll get back to being Jeter, but right now, him hitting lead off is actively hurting the team.

The Yankees have a short line up; their lead off hitter has got to be able to get on base.

And, lastly, we have number four:

4) Marcus Thames should never play the field. Ever.

If it’s not self explanatory, go and watch him play in the outfield. Bring some tissues with you, baseball fan, because I can almost guarantee that it will make you cry, because you could have probably fielded better than that.

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A baseball team cannot blow eighth inning leads three games in a row and expect to win the majority of those games. It cannot.

If CC Sabathia pitches your team seven innings of one run ball, and your team has scored five runs, there is utterly no reason that that game should be lost.

You can argue whether or not Cervelli should have bunted (he shouldn’t), whether Winn should have been pinch hit for (not a possibility because Posada and Swisher are still too hurt), or the merits of Thames playing in the outfield (he shouldn’t, but again, not really any other option), but tonight’s game came down to one thing:

Joba failed.

A set-up man handed a 5-1 lead in the eighth inning needs to leave that inning with the lead. End of story.

However, tonight, the second time in three games, Chamberlain could not get the job done. You can argue that Girardi should have removed Chamberlain earlier, but with the bullpen, in Girardi’s words, “a mess”, Chamberlain really did need to get the job done. He did not.

You can argue the leverage argument–that once the game got to 5-4, Rivera should have made an appearance, but rushing Rivera to get ready on a rainy night in the forties in May is also not necessarily the best course of action.

@leokitty kindly offers us this clue as to maybe why Chamberlain could not get the job done tonight.

I’m no pitching expert, so I can’t tell you what he should have thrown, but half of the pitching battle is (supposedly) that the hitters don’t actually know what’s coming. With Joba, you don’t necessarily have to guess.

So yes, once the ninth inning played out as it did, Marcus Thames should have caught the baseball, the umpires should have called a strike, Cervelli should have not bunted because Robbie Canó was already at second base and Cisco’s got some great RISP numbers, and Randy Winn swung at ball four twice, but NONE of that matters if the Yankees actually manage to hang onto a four run lead in the ninth inning.

Last year, we made fun of the Phillies (and the year before, the Mets) for bullpens that weren’t getting the job done. I know the Yankee bullpen has been overworked, but when Sabathia gives you seven and your two best relievers are available, you have to find a way to win that game.

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There is no possible way I can sum up this game. None. So take a look at this graph. It’s shiny.

(via Fangraphs)

Okay, bullet points:

1) Phil Hughes had his first not good outing, even though he left the game with a lead. Basically, he didn’t have a ‘finish’ pitch working, and the Red Sox made like the Yankees and built the pitch count up early. By the time of JD Drew’s home run in the fifth inning, Hughes was way over 100, high-stress pitches. Every pitcher, especially one still only 23 years old, is gonna have not so good outings. His next start should come against the Mets, we’ll see how he rebounds.

2) Joe Girardi’s bullpen managing was full of ‘buuuh’, but think about it this way: had the game gone to extra innings, Javier Vazquez would have been able to give the bullpen some length. Of course, this would have probably not happened and instead Mariano would have pitched the 10th and then, umm, who knows what, but hey, Marte pitched well, and Chan Ho Park…not so much.

3) Brett Gardner and Alex Rodriguez need to hit against Jonathan Papelbon more often. Wow. Just. Yeah, A-Rod hate is so 2004.
3a) Reminders of that 15 inning game last summer and ALDS game 2.

4) As, apparently, does Marcus Thames. About whom I never will again say bad things.

5) Joe West has a point. That game was what, four hours and change? Or just under four? Eeesh.

6) A-Rod’s game tying and Thames’ game-winning home runs will be added to the “for your viewing pleasure” post shortly. You can find the link on the sidebar.

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(Via Heyman, SI and RAB)

Hey, it gives us an excuse to go look at the fancy splits feature on Fangraphs!

Did you know that last year he hit .299 on grounders…and only .212 on fly balls?

Seriously, check it out!

(And yes, Thames joins Nick Johnson and Javier Vazquez as returning Yankees.)

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