The list came out today in the Baseball America magazine and, in order, goes:

1. Jesus Montero
2. Gary Sanchez
3. Dellin Betances
4. Manny Banuelos
5. Andrew Brackman
6. Austin Romine
7. Hector Noesi
8. Eduardo Nunez
9. Slade Heathcott
10. Brandon Laird

Some thoughts:

1) Jesus Montero is a no-contest obvious choice for top pick. He struggled early in the AAA season, but a) he’s twenty years old, and b) went from hitting below .220 in May to just under .290 at season’s end. To fully understand how good he was in the second half, consider that his second-half wOBA was .433. There are, of course, the requisite questions about the defense, but when your bat is that good, they’ll find a place for you to play.

2) That Gary Sanchez is ranked second on the list does come as a surprise. While he arguably has one of, if not the, highest ceiling of the non-pitching prospects in the Yankee system, given his bat and that he doesn’t turn eighteen till December, he also is coming off his first professional season, played entirely at the GCL/Short Season level. Okay, so maybe Sanchez led the league in OPS, was 2nd in home runs, 3rd in OBP, and first in SLG, but there’s still such a long road ahead of him, and so much is just having the good luck to stay healthy, that while Sanchez no doubt deserves a top ten ranking, second does seem to be pushing it just a bit…

3) It’s great to see all three of the Killer B’s on the list, although I would have perhaps ordered it differently–Banuelos, Brackman, Betances, although if any one of the three hits anything close to their ceiling it will be fun to watch. Banuelos is perhaps the most polished of the three, throws left handed, is just nineteen and even managed to hit 97 on the gun once or twice. He sits much lower normally–low nineties, but there’s still much to like.

Andrew Brackman had a much improved 2010 after a rather, well, let’s-not-go-there season in 2009. It was decent enough to earn him a September call up from AA, and though he never appeared in a game, he was considered active. There’s a very good chance he’ll make his Major League debut at some point next season.

Dellin Betances has perhaps the flithiest pure stuff among the Killer B’s, but has an injury history that could be a red flag going forward.

That said, if you’re ranking the Killer B’s on stuff alone, Betances-Banuelos-Brackman would seem the most logical route.

4) Romine didn’t have a great 2010, but some of it may have to do with wearing down after a full season of catching. He’s supposed to be much better behind the plate than Montero, which has some sensing that he could stick at catcher long term if Montero becomes a full time DH, but a) it’s probably too early to really speculate about that, and b) let’s see how he responds next season before anointing him Posada’s successor (the same, perhaps, could be said of Montero except that Montero is much, much closer to being MLB ready if he’s not already there.)

5) Noesi may not have the Killer B’s ceilings, and he struggled at triple A, but let’s not forget he started 2010 in high A, so he’s made quite a journey. Let’s see how he responds this upcoming season.

6) I’m really baffled at Eduardo Nuñez appearing in the top 10–sure, he did make a couple Major League appearances in 2010, but not everyone is sold. I asked Josh Norris, who covers the Trenton Thunder for The Trentonian and has covered Nuñez for his thoughts:

When I saw Nunez, what stood out to me was his arm. He has an absolute bazooka over there. He always seemed to take his time over at shortstop, but he always managed to get his man by at least a step. Oh, and did I mention he led the team in hits?

Maybe it turns out that Nuñez is one of those that no one really expects to stick…and then does, but color me a little more skeptical.

7) Heathcott was the Yankees’ top pick in 2009, and hit .258/.359/.352/.712 at Charleston this season. It’s only his second professional season, and first in full season ball, so I wouldn’t make too much of the numbers just yet. Here’s a scouting report, it’s not entirely positive and makes it clear that Heathcott still has a very long way to go. Not, perhaps, as long as Sanchez, but still, it’ll probably be a little while.

On Brandon Laird: so, uh, 2010 came out of almost nowhere. Given that Laird’s never quite had an offensive performance like that before, there’s no certainty he’ll repeat and the Yankees may be best off selling high, although Laird, at 22 may simply be a late bloomer.

So the way I see it, the Yankee farm system is in better shape than it’s been in a while–just think of all of those who didn’t make the list that could have–although it’s far from perfect. The top five, especially, have tremendous upside although one must consider that nothing is ever a guarantee.

Still, for the Yankees, a team used to venerating the past, the future looks pretty bright.

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Via River Ave Blues

Jesus Montero, C: 3 for 4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI – 13 for his last 30 (.433) with four doubles & three homers … that’s his third homer in the last four games … was pinch run for in the 8th, when they were down a run

Via @conorfoley: Interesting caught stealing stat: Cervelli – 16% CS, Posada – 17% CS, Austin Romine – 18% CS, Jesus Montero – 24% CS.

Via @bkabak: Since July 1, Jesus Montero is 40 for 106 (.377) with 8 HR and 9 2B.

Via @ledger_yankees Posada was unavailable to pinch hit due to a “cranky shoulder”.

Yeah. It’s time. Call up Jesus.

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[Edit: Joel Sherman of the NY Post is now reporting that the Mariners have backed away from the deal.  I feel like I've been played.  Sort of.]

Our friends at RAB have the updates

Thoughts:

I’ve been saying this to friends for a while. I love Cliff Lee. Absolutely love him. That said, I would have much preferred to acquire him in the offseason, when he’d cost money and not prospects, and not be a couple months’ rental.

Lee’s said he wanted to try the Free Agent market and there is, of course, the possibility that the Yankees will be able to resign him, but if they can’t, it’d be an awfully steep price to pay.

Losing Jesus Montero hurts because, as a fan, I invested so much emotion in his development. Before you yell at me for being so stupid–I am a fan. I’m allowed to get involved. Ask anyone in Cleveland how they’re feeling this morning…it’s part of being a fan, getting involved.

That said, if I’m to remain rational and objective, I have these thoughts:

• That the Yankees must be really worried about what happens when Hughes (fast-approaches) his innings limit.  I know some of you are chomping at the bit that they trade Javy, but I see it more as an excuse to give Hughes some time off and a viable fourth starter option in the playoffs.  Which is, of course, ridiculous, because Lee is a #1 guy.

• They must really like Romine as a catcher.  The Yankees are deep at starting catching in the lower levels, all the way down to the GCL and Gary Sanchez.

• Unless the Yankees get Cliff Lee to sign an extension, and then Cliff Lee is still the ’08, ’09 and ’10 and not ’07 version of Cliff Lee throughout the entire thing, this could go down as being not very good for Cashman’s legacy.

There’s a line here that my friends hate, but it, in this instance, is actually applicable….something about time…

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When we analyze baseball, we make a lot of leverage and balance. We talk about unsustainable BABIP rates, regression to the mean and, even, in the most basic, unadulterated, non-statistical form, pure karma.

The idea that for every action, a reaction, for every success a failure.

For every success, a failure.

***

People often try to live vicariously through their heroes, be they film stars, musicians, politicians or athletes.

We learn, as baseball fans, at a young age to idolize the likes of Babe Ruth, Joe DiMaggio, Ted Williams, Jackie Robinson, and Hank Aaron–and to idolize the idea that with a little hard work, anything is possible.

That is, after all, what makes the American spirit.

***

For every success, a failure.

For every Francisco Cervelli, a not-really-elite-prospect that endears himself at the big league level, there’s a Christian Garcia–a world of talent and the short straw in the injury gene lottery.

For every Phil Hughes, an Alan Horne.

For every success, a failure.

***

There are those you never expect to succeed in the first place.

Take the Yanks’ new favorite nemisis in Dallas Braden, for example. If you haven’t done so, read this post, by Joe Posnanski to get at what I’m saying.

If Dallas Braden hadn’t made it to the Major Leagues, as was expected, few would have ever noticed. To most, he would have simply been a name, a line in a box score in some AA or AAA game, a box score you were looking at for someone else–but not for him.

These ones are not the failures–after all, how can one fail when one is never supposed to have succeeded?
****

There are those who might be expected to succeed, but have instead drawn the short straw in the injury lottery.

These ones, like Christian Garcia*, break your heart. They’ve got God-given talent, and no luck where it matters most–their health.

You want these guys to have every chance in the world, but something always happens. When it’s at the Major League level, like Carl Pavano or Ben Sheets or the 2009 Mets, you might, perhaps, end up laughing. After all, these guys have made it, make more throwing a single pitch than you will all year.

When it happens to the prospects, though, you can feel your heart break. After all, you can’t just sleep off an injury and ignore your health–we’re a long way from the days where surgery was so risky you’d be better off writing your will before going under the knife, but it wasn’t so long ago that a broken leg meant a broken career.

It’s too cruel to call this failure. Their bodies fail; not them.

*Garcia penned, through Mike Ashmore, a thank you note to the fans that have stuck by him. You can read it here.

***

There are those like Eric Duncan.

The early–in this case, first–round draft picks of whom much is expected, and, ultimately, little delivered.

Gone from a mainstay in the Down on the Farm mentions over at River Ave Blues to a brief mention in a Spring Training column about Shelley Duncan.

These are the ones where the reality hits you–or, as our friend Andy in Sunny Daytona puts it, “while it’s tough to see your favorite prospects fail, chances are, they will.”

When you realize that they’ve hit their ceiling, that there’s no more going forward, it hits you like a punch in the gut, fast and furious.

You’ll recover, sure, but it will take time if you’re not used to it.

***

It’s different, of course, when one fails though he’s put in every last effort possible, every last BP, extra bullpen session, extra fielding practice, extra coaching, extra whatever…and when one fails because he simply didn’t try, because he let whatever is going on off-field affect him on it.
It’s not easy to make it to the Major Leagues; we all know this and many of us have found out the hard way.

You can have God-given talent, be signed at the age of sixteen, be given all the opportunity in the world, but without a maturity, without the ability to remain confident without being entitled, without the knowledge that luggage needs to be left at the door, it can all go for naught.

Jose Tabata is with the Pirates; Elijah Dukes was released by the Nationals; Angel Villalona (Giants) was arrested in the offseason, charged with manslaughter.

For every success, a failure.

These are the ones that leave a bitter taste in your mouth.

****

Last week, as you likely well know by now, Jesus Montero was benched for not hustling.

At AAA Scranton, he is, perhaps for the first time in his life, struggling with baseball.

He’s 20 years old, the youngest player at that level–so that he’s struggling is to be expected, and, ultimately is not what matters right now.

Given how far he has come at such a young age, it would suggest that Montero’s issue will not be his talent–at least, not at the plate, anyway.

What matters–and kudos for the coaching staff for not just understanding, but enforcing this–is how Montero responds.

A hard taught lesson now, hustling even for a ground out (what if Mark Teixeira hadn’t been hustling from first after Luis Castillo’s pop up last year?) will, we hope, nip the problem in the bud and we can return to our obsession with the #1 prospect in the Yankees’ farm system.

****

For every success, a failure.

No matter how much we want Montero succeed, even if he does, becomes everything Yankee fans could have wanted and then some, there will still be someone who will not.

Baseball is about hope, about that one time out of 100, things really do go your way, but just ask those Cubs fans–you still have to get through the 99 first.

For every success, a failure.

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The Hardball Times has come out with six year projections for Jesus Montero.

Of course, they’re just projections and lots of things can happen.  Montero is only 20, and has yet to make an appearance over AA.

The projections, however, do seem to give some substance to the statement that: in the long run it doesn’t matter if Montero is a catcher or a DH–if his bat is that talented, you’ll find room for him to play.

Here are the projections, under the jump:

Six-Year Major League Equivalent Forecast

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Greetings, readers.

It’s been a while, hasn’t it? How have you spent your February?

Me? Pulled off a move (still in New York City, just a different place), griping about NBC’s Olympics coverage and making plans to go to my first (!) Spring Training game next weekend–alas, it’s not the Yankees, who are too far from my lodgings, but it’s the Cardinals and the Marlins, and how often does a Yankee fan get to see Pujols up close and personal?

So.

A few thoughts as Spring Training has begun to unfold.

1): I’m sure by now you’ve heard about the monster mash from teh Jesús.

I’ve waxed poetic about Montero before; as I told one of my drinks companions last night, there are very few baseball players I go ga-ga over; Mariano is one, Pujols is another, and Montero is easily the third.

Baseball Prospectus 2010 brings up an interesting point in their capsule review of Montero: sometimes, every once in a while, we’re gifted with a player whose, in their words, G-d given position is DH. As much as Montero’s value would increase as a catcher, he might very well debut as a DH–and if BP’s comparing him to Edgar Martinez and Frank Thomas, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

As it is, at some point, Nick Johnson will probably get hurt, because that’s what Nick Johnson does when he’s not busy owning our notion of .OBP, and he’ll need a replacement at DH. While DH’ing Posada and catching Cervelli for a couple games isn’t the worst thing in the entire world, by the middle of August we could very well be at a point where the Yankees would get the greatest benefit — roster hoop-jumping aside– from DH’ing Montero, and keeping Posada’s bat in the lineup at catcher.

We are, of course, a long way from that–Montero’s not yet played a game above AA. Then again, the guys who mashed similarly at AA at a young age–guys like Miguel Cabrera and Andruw Jones–didn’t spend much time at AAA, either.

The point here is that we’re probably looking at the best bat the Yankees have had in their system in a very, very long time–in terms of pure power, probably the best bat in my lifetime. Montero is employed by a team that plays in a league with a DH. If the need arises, and Montero performs in AAA as many of us expect, the Yankees should not hold him back.

Imagine if Edgar Martinez had been unleashed upon the Major Leagues before he turned 27….

2) Today was Picture Day. This year’s crop is much better than last year’s (and are viewable on Getty Images), but there isn’t any that rivals the pure shock value of Brian Bruney’s 2008 shot–where he was almost unrecognizable compared to his appearance in 2007. You wouldn’t think it possible to change your appearance that much in just a few months, but apparently it is.

3) I’m about to start reading Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. I know, I know, it’s a book I should have read ages ago, before The Numbers Game or Baseball Between the Numbers, but for various reasons, I hadn’t purchased a copy till now.

I enjoy understanding what stats are supposed to tell you, but I’m not too good at calculating them. Thus, Baseball Between the Numbers is a favorite, but I haven’t been able to get through The Book–no fault of the author’s, the math just goes over my head.

Still, if anyone’s living proof that you don’t have to like math to appreciate sabermetrics, I’m probably it.

4) I’m not sure it snowed this much in any of my four years at Syracuse. Seriously.

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According to this post from our friends at RAB, the Yankees offered uber-prospect Jesús Montero straight up for Roy Halladay–and Toronto turned it down.

Oh boy.

I know, I know.  If you have the chance to exchange an unproven prospect for a top-flight starter in his prime, you should do it.

Theoretically.

If the prospect in question isn’t Jesús-freakin’-Montero.

I am generally a conservative person when it comes to trades–you’d really, really have to wow me to get me to sign off on it (the Nady/Marte deal, when it was first done and we were not yet aware of the injurious consequences, was one such deal).

I also happen to be, as I have not bothered to hide, a huge, huge fan of Montero.

While Montero has a lot of work to do before we can brand him a Yankee icon, he is easily the best prospect (from a hitting standpoint, anyway) the Yankees have had for a long, long time–certainly since the uber-days of Bernie and Jeter and Mo and Andy and JoPo.

He’s also only 20 years old–a full 12 years younger (read: a length of time greater than the average MLB career) than Halladay.

If the Yankees had pulled that trade off, the fan base would have probably been divided almost like McCain/Obama country.  Many would have argued that the obvious thing to do is to trade the unproven talent who may not actually stick at catcher for a Cy Young winner and proven Ace; for me the argument would have centered around Halladay’s high cost and (relatively) high age given what it would take to keep him.

We’re two seasons removed now from the Johan Santana trade-of-doom that the Yankees did not make.  The Mets have yet to play a postseason game in that time while the Yankees have a World Series win to their credit.

The Jays kept Halladay and finished in fourth place; the Yankees kept Jesús, and while the Trenton team may not have had a great season, I think we all know what the Yankees did…

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There are very few times when I can say out loud that I’m glad I’m a fan, as opposed to a member of the media–and thus someone getting paid to write about baseball.

This present moment, however, is one of them, because, as a fan I do not feel the slightest guilt or hint of impropriety at wishing the great Mariano Rivera a Happy 40th Birthday.

It is utterly impossible to qualify what Mariano Rivera has meant to the Yankees, so in tribute, I will you with this:

The last time the Yankees were in a postseason and Mariano didn’t pitch, I–and I assume a few of you–had not even been born.

That’s how long lasting his career is, and yet when he says he can pitch five more seasons, we don’t have a single decent reason to doubt him.

Also, it can’t possibly be a coincidence that yesterday was the birthday of uber-prospect Jesús Montero…right?

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