Okay. Breathe in, breathe out. Breathe in. Breath out.
Calmer? No? Let’s try it again. Breathe in. Breath out. Breath in. Breath out.
Okay then. Let’s get to it.
The Yankees have some serious problems going on right now. In order of perceived importance, I will list them as follow:
1) Injuries. Nick Johnson, Jorge Posada, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher, now Marcus Thames, and God knows what Andy Pettitte’s elbow is thinking.
2) A bullpen that is, well, doing it’s best to imitate Arizona (if you’re not familiar, look it up).
3) Derek Jeter
4) Marcus Thames in the field, anywhere
Wow. You know what’s impressive? Javier Vazquez doesn’t even make the list, and still I guarantee someone will find a way to blame Javy.
Anyway, let’s go through these, as best we can. Let’s identify the problems, and, if possible, offer some solutions.
1) Injuries.
This is far and away the biggest issue the Yankees have right now. Nick Johnson and Jorge Posada are more or less sidelined for at least a month–with Johnson, probably longer. Curtis Granderson has been out basically a month. Nick Swisher has a funky bicep. Marcus Thames tripped over his my-god-we’re-the-Mets bat. Andy Pettitte has a somewhat fragile elbow.
It is, unfortunately, becoming reminiscent of 2008, when the Yankees were depleted by injuries and unable to recover. The difference is that the starting pitching is a lot better than it was in 2008, but no team can loose nearly half of it’s regular batting order and not suffer.
In some instances, it’s almost easier for a team when a player suffers a long term injury, since it allows management more flexibility in terms of roster management. When players are nicked and bruised, but not enough for the DL, the team can’t really make a whole lot of moves.
Tonight, the bench was Ramiro Peña and he had to come in and play for Thames. What, I wonder, would have happened had someone else been hurt or ejected? Can Boone Logan play left field? Does David Robertson know how to swing a bat?
There’s no easy fix for injuries, unless a team has a stacked farm system (at the upper levels, the Yankees do not) or else a very, very deep and well constructed 40 man roster.
Do the Yankees have enough depth? It’s hard to say, and this brings me to point two.
2) The Arson Squad
If your ace pitches you seven innings of one run ball and your team has a lead of more than one run, you have to hold that lead in the eighth inning. You absolutely have to.
Right now, there is no one in the Yankee bullpen that can necessarily be trusted to accomplish this task. This is a problem as much as the Yankees not really having a long reliever, thus the necessity of Javier Vazquez appearing out of the bullpen.
If Joe Girardi is going to carry an eight man bullpen, and we know how much he loves his lefty pitchers, the bullpen men have got to find a way to get the job done–we can only expect Randy Winn, Ramiro Peña and Juan Miranda to stage so many ninth inning comebacks.
The Year of the Walkoff was wonderful, but it isn’t still 2009. The Yankees can’t assume that what worked for them last season will work for them this season.
That brings me to problem three.
3) Derek Jeter
Let’s say your team is trailing by a manageable, still-tie-able-with-one-swing four runs.
Let’s say you’re the home team and you’ve got the bases loaded in the sixth inning, and the starter looks absolutely cooked.
Let’s say you’re the batter at the plate and you’ve gone up 3-0. You’re the leadoff man, which means the team’s best hitters are right behind you.
You have utterly got to find a way to get on base and keep the inning rolling. Forget a grand slam or even a hit; on a 3-0 count, a walk is a very real possibility. It’s one thing if you’re battling Greinke or Halladay, but Wade Davis, as far as I know, is not one of those two.
Larger picture: if you’re playing with a short lineup–and for the forseeable future, the Yankees will be–the Yankees’ lead off man has got to actually be able to work counts and get on base. Derek Jeter hasn’t been doing much of that recently.
Tonight, two various lineup solutions, using the current cast of characters, presented themselves.
1: Keep the line up as is, but switch Garder and Jeter, and 2: Drop Jeter way down and have Gardner-Cervelli hit 1-2.
I’m a fan of option two.
Last season, Jeter was moved to the leadoff position in order to keep away from the double play, given his ground ball proclivities (as we saw the other day, nearly 70%).
Speedy McSpeederson works counts, makes contact on pitches in the strike zone, steals bases, is a fan-dubbed “professional wreakor of havoc” and has a nice, shiny, Nick Johnsian .405 OBP. (Derek Jeter has a .312 OBP. Um. Yeah. That’s not gonna do it).
Yes, there is a very real argument to be made that Gardner’s OBP is unsustainable. It probably his–his .364 BABIP is likely unsustainable as well.
That doesn’t mean you can’t ride him while he’s hot, so to speak, and for the time being, hit him lead off. He may yet surprise us.
This brings us to who hits second in the lineup.
If Jeter hits second again, you once again bring up the double play possibilities. Yes, Gardner is fast, but Jeter’s nigh-on-70% ground ball rate–and many of these are ground balls to short or second–is just asking for it. You can’t ask Gardner to be beating out double plays nine times out of ten.
So, who do you, in a short line up, hit second?
You’re probably not going to move Teixeira or A-Rod out of the three and four spots. Robinson Canó, doncha know, is the someone that is needed to protect A-Rod, May OPS’s of .660 notwithstanding.
After Canó, you hit The Dropoff, where the lineup goes from one of the best in the Majors, to something that could maybe work in the National League Central, with, if we assume Thames is out for a few games at least, Cervelli-Miranda-Winn-Peña.
Of those four, Cervelli is the one that is most intriguing.
Cervelli never was supposed to hit, at all, but he keeps doing that–and not just hitting, but finding ways to advance a runner when need be. He’s pretty fast–especially for a catcher, and, well, he’s already hitting sixth.
Okay, so his BABIP of .429 is the definition of unsustainable, but again, we’re talking about a ride-em-while-they’re-hot philosophy.
For just one game, it can’t hurt too much to try it, right? I know Girardi never will, but trying just once might do something–when the Yankees were going rough, Joe Torre would completley screw with the lineup, just to see if he could get the team back on track.
It might be time for Girardi to try it.
Look, Jeter’s slash line is .266/.312/.387. He hasn’t hit under .270 since 1995–the year he broke in. With the exception of 1995, he’s never had an OBP worse than .350, and never a slugging percentage under .400.
In short, Jeter, in his age 36 season, and in a walk year–when players typically outperform their expectations–is thus far having the worst season of his career. The April numbers are respectable enough, but May’s .189/.268 /.230/.498 is downright scary.
I realize that with some luck, this is just Jeter playing through some minor injury and that come June he’ll get back to being Jeter, but right now, him hitting lead off is actively hurting the team.
The Yankees have a short line up; their lead off hitter has got to be able to get on base.
And, lastly, we have number four:
4) Marcus Thames should never play the field. Ever.
If it’s not self explanatory, go and watch him play in the outfield. Bring some tissues with you, baseball fan, because I can almost guarantee that it will make you cry, because you could have probably fielded better than that.
4 Responses on In which I vent
“That doesn’t mean you can’t ride him while he’s hot”
Nice image.
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The bullpen is full of Mexicans?
[Reply]
Rebecca G. Reply:
May 21st, 2010 at 4:09 pm
Arizona’s bullpen, as of last night, had a 7.90 ERA. And a .921 OPS against (!!)
[Reply]
I think swapping Jeter and Gardner in the order makes more sense than dropping Jeter to the bottom half of the lineup. Neither move is going to provide much impact on the offense as a whole, because batting orders generally aren’t as important as we think. However, by batting Jeter second, you give him the opportunity to bat with Gardner on base 40% of the time. This means he’ll see a lot of fastballs thrown by distracted pitchers, which can only help him get into a groove.
[Reply]
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