When you’re the defending World Champions, life is usually pretty good in the offseason; the decisions you need to make to improve your team fairly minimal.
Right now, it looks like the Yankees may want to sign another starter–not a one or a two, but an insurance policy if Hughes or even Kennedy struggle, but nothing requiring CC or AJ money.
They may want to improve their bench, maybe. Hairston and Peña do a nice job of filling the “utility” part of a utility man, and Francisco Cervelli will more than likely be an adequate back-up. You could keep Hinske for karma alone. So maybe you look for a better bat, but I’d be okay if the Yankees, for the moment, left it as is.
The only really hard decision the Yankees have to make, then, the only one that’s going to make you tear your hair out, is whether or not the Yankees should bring back Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, both, or neither.
Here’s the arguments both for and against bringing them back:
Johnny Damon
BRING HIM BACK: Unlike Matsui, Damon can play the field and still has speed on the bases. This is by far the biggest argument in his favor, but don’t discount his offense–his 24 homer runs in 2009, perhaps a product of the New Yankee Stadium, tie a career high, he OPS’d .854, and his 36 doubles were his most in 10 years. Oh, and that part where he stole two bases in Game Four of the World Series? He still plays smart baseball.
LET HIM GO: There are arguments as to just how beneficial it is for the Yankees to have Damon playing in left field. His 12 stolen bases are actually the lowest number since his rookie year, again giving lie to how much value his speed is really worth.
View all of Damon’s stats here. Click on “splits” to see his marks for 2009.
Hideki Matsui
BRING HIM BACK: The reigning World Series MVP, Matsui has long been under-appreciated for his consistent offensive stats. We all know he can go deep, but we forget how often he does it. Even with his bum knees and the week he took off while the Yankees were in NL parks, he still cranked 28 home runs and OPS’d .876. He’s a fan favorite that has been nothing but class since his tenure here, and perhaps most importantly, check out what ‘Sui’s done in the postseason.
LET HIM GO: The biggest issue with Matsui is that he cannot play in the field. Bringing him back as a full time DH means that those are DH ABs that get taken away from an aging Jorge Posada–although Posada should be able to play most games at catcher, barring injury, he’ll still need more days off in 2010 than he had in 2009. Matsui’s also a slave to his knees, which he has to get drained at regular intervals, and isn’t really any sort of stolen base threat. His 28 home runs are only actually four more than Damon, and his batting average was actually lower than Damon’s. If you compare the two’s slash stats, you find that Damon had the higher average, and Matsui the higher OPS, but the differences are much narrower than you’d imagine. For instance, one OBP is .367, the other is .365.
So what to do?
Many argue that the Yankees should simply let both of them go and dip into the free agent market to sign either Jason Bay or Matt Holliday.
Me?
I’m of the opinion that just because the free agent market exists, it doesn’t mean you have to go dive right in if there are not free agents to your liking.
Bay and Holliday are good, not great, players whose–especially Bay’s–defense is questionable, and both of whom are likely going to attempt to command money they might not actually deserve based on their stats, simply because they’re the best in their class.
What I would do, then, is bring back both Damon and Matsui on one year deals–overpay if I have to, it’s just one year–though if the cost is low enough, I’ll give Damon a team option for a second year. I don’t with Matsui because by 2011 it’s likely Posada will need more ABs as a DH than a C, and since he’s already under contract, finding him a place to play is momentarily more important.
In the 2010-2011 offseason, the outfield free agent pool includes Yankee fan favorite Carl Crawford as well as Jayson Werth, who can flat-out mash. I wouldn’t count out this guy either; there’s always room for a guy that can OPS .903.
If needed, you can supplant Damon’s late-inning defense by playing Hairston or perhaps even Peña; and days off for Matsui, as we’ve seen in 2009, seem to work all sorts of wonders, so giving him a couple days off for Posada to DH might actually be a good thing.
There are, of course, other factors that go into the decision–how do the players feel, how much do the Yankees want to spend, and so on–things that we as fans can’t possibly know just yet.
6 Responses on The Hardest Off-Season Decision Looms
I haven’t decided who I’d rather have yet. I’d probably say it’s whoever will take just one year. If you’re concerned about Holliday’s defense, Brad Hawpe isn’t a guy who should be in the discussion. -82 runs by UZR over the past three seasons!
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I think if we can sign Damon to a one year contract, they might platoon him with Austin Jackson in the second half the year to help bridge the transition. I love Matsui but unless you get him real cheap….I don’t see how you can do it.
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You re-sign Matsui. I just don’t think that the Yanks’ll have a catcher worthy of taking at-bats at C away from JoPo. The con arguments explain my position on Damon as well as the fact that he’s always nicked up. Besides, Matsui can, at least, be a 2004 Ruben Sierra. I think you have to go Holliday. I don’t have much faith in AJax and Carl Crawford is more frustrating than people think.
As for a pitcher–Ben Sheets. He’s already recovered (or close to it) from his surgery and could provide about 90-100 quality innings for, say, $4-6M.
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Offer Matsui a one year deal. It would be utterly crass not to, especially given that *in 2010* it would be hard to replace his bat. But more than a one year deal would be stupid unless his knees miraculously return to where he could play LF.
I might offer Damon a 2 year deal but would be happier with a single year plus team option for 2011. Bring up Austin Jackson later in the year, maybe as late as a September callup depending on how things go.
Pitching and outfield are my other concerns. Starting pitchers will be hard to come by this winter, as a lot of teams will be in the market — including Boston, and possibly both LA teams. I suspect someone will offer Ben Sheets $7.5M/year in the end, and I can’t see the Yankees spending that on him.
The outfield… is a more complicated issue.
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What I would try to do if I was running the NYY:
The Yankees have stated numerous times that they want to get younger and more athletic. So if I were them I would look into acquiring Curtis Granderson. He won’t turn 29 till March of 2010 and the rest of his contract looks like this: $5.5 million in 2010, $8.25 million in 2011 and $10 million in 2012 and a team option of $13 million for 2013 with a $2 million buyout.
This senario would allow them to get younger, move Cabera to left field and give the outfield defense alot of range. Also that contract makes Granderson extremly affordable.
Now I bring up Granderson b/c there have been many rumors about how Detroit wants to trade his contract and because NYY won’t be sacraficing anything on the field. Granderson had 20 stolen bases and hit 30 homeruns while playing 1/2 his games in spacious Comerica Park. Also he played 160 games which makes his durable and he could slide right into the 2 spot as lefty in between Jeter and Tex.
Also if Austin Jackson turns into a adequate outfielder than he could challenge Cabera in left or Swisher in right and than eventually move into CF down the road.
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wow, I never even thought of Hawpe–and unlike Holliday, he doesn’t get that much of a Coors Field discount (.887 OPS at home, .864 on the road for his career, as opposed to Holliday and his 250 point OPS split)
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