Thoughts on BA’s Top 10 Yankee Prospects

The list came out today in the Baseball America magazine and, in order, goes:

1. Jesus Montero
2. Gary Sanchez
3. Dellin Betances
4. Manny Banuelos
5. Andrew Brackman
6. Austin Romine
7. Hector Noesi
8. Eduardo Nunez
9. Slade Heathcott
10. Brandon Laird

Some thoughts:

1) Jesus Montero is a no-contest obvious choice for top pick. He struggled early in the AAA season, but a) he’s twenty years old, and b) went from hitting below .220 in May to just under .290 at season’s end. To fully understand how good he was in the second half, consider that his second-half wOBA was .433. There are, of course, the requisite questions about the defense, but when your bat is that good, they’ll find a place for you to play.

2) That Gary Sanchez is ranked second on the list does come as a surprise. While he arguably has one of, if not the, highest ceiling of the non-pitching prospects in the Yankee system, given his bat and that he doesn’t turn eighteen till December, he also is coming off his first professional season, played entirely at the GCL/Short Season level. Okay, so maybe Sanchez led the league in OPS, was 2nd in home runs, 3rd in OBP, and first in SLG, but there’s still such a long road ahead of him, and so much is just having the good luck to stay healthy, that while Sanchez no doubt deserves a top ten ranking, second does seem to be pushing it just a bit…

3) It’s great to see all three of the Killer B’s on the list, although I would have perhaps ordered it differently–Banuelos, Brackman, Betances, although if any one of the three hits anything close to their ceiling it will be fun to watch. Banuelos is perhaps the most polished of the three, throws left handed, is just nineteen and even managed to hit 97 on the gun once or twice. He sits much lower normally–low nineties, but there’s still much to like.

Andrew Brackman had a much improved 2010 after a rather, well, let’s-not-go-there season in 2009. It was decent enough to earn him a September call up from AA, and though he never appeared in a game, he was considered active. There’s a very good chance he’ll make his Major League debut at some point next season.

Dellin Betances has perhaps the flithiest pure stuff among the Killer B’s, but has an injury history that could be a red flag going forward.

That said, if you’re ranking the Killer B’s on stuff alone, Betances-Banuelos-Brackman would seem the most logical route.

4) Romine didn’t have a great 2010, but some of it may have to do with wearing down after a full season of catching. He’s supposed to be much better behind the plate than Montero, which has some sensing that he could stick at catcher long term if Montero becomes a full time DH, but a) it’s probably too early to really speculate about that, and b) let’s see how he responds next season before anointing him Posada’s successor (the same, perhaps, could be said of Montero except that Montero is much, much closer to being MLB ready if he’s not already there.)

5) Noesi may not have the Killer B’s ceilings, and he struggled at triple A, but let’s not forget he started 2010 in high A, so he’s made quite a journey. Let’s see how he responds this upcoming season.

6) I’m really baffled at Eduardo Nuñez appearing in the top 10–sure, he did make a couple Major League appearances in 2010, but not everyone is sold. I asked Josh Norris, who covers the Trenton Thunder for The Trentonian and has covered Nuñez for his thoughts:

When I saw Nunez, what stood out to me was his arm. He has an absolute bazooka over there. He always seemed to take his time over at shortstop, but he always managed to get his man by at least a step. Oh, and did I mention he led the team in hits?

Maybe it turns out that Nuñez is one of those that no one really expects to stick…and then does, but color me a little more skeptical.

7) Heathcott was the Yankees’ top pick in 2009, and hit .258/.359/.352/.712 at Charleston this season. It’s only his second professional season, and first in full season ball, so I wouldn’t make too much of the numbers just yet. Here’s a scouting report, it’s not entirely positive and makes it clear that Heathcott still has a very long way to go. Not, perhaps, as long as Sanchez, but still, it’ll probably be a little while.

8) On Brandon Laird: so, uh, 2010 came out of almost nowhere. Given that Laird’s never quite had an offensive performance like that before, there’s no certainty he’ll repeat and the Yankees may be best off selling high, although Laird, at 22 may simply be a late bloomer.

So the way I see it, the Yankee farm system is in better shape than it’s been in a while–just think of all of those who didn’t make the list that could have–although it’s far from perfect. The top five, especially, have tremendous upside although one must consider that nothing is ever a guarantee.

Still, for the Yankees, a team used to venerating the past, the future looks pretty bright.


A Response to Chuck Greenberg’s Comments

There’s a lot that you can say about us Yankee fans, and we’ll either tacitly acknowledge it or politely ignore you. You can call us spoiled, entitled, what have you and it really won’t get under our skin. We’ve heard it before and we’ll hear it again. If that’s the price to pay for a team that’s a perennial contender, we’ll gladly pay it.

When, however, you call us apathetic, we have a problem.

See, that’s just, plain, wrong.

I know it’s tempting to look at the businessmen in the Legends Seats and think “oh, Yankees fans don’t care”, but, look, I’ve been in New York–not just in October, but in April and May and June and July and August and September–and I know how much this city breathes baseball.

You think we don’t care?

Maybe you’ve never actually seen the Daily News or New York Post when the back pages compete to see who can more accurately sum up the zeitgeist after that evening’s game–a win and all is right with the world; a loss and humanity itself is doomed.

You think we don’t care?

Baseball is like oxygen in New York. Everything is just different in the summer, and it’s not just the weather. We love our team so much that we can tell you not just that Pettitte wears 46 and Mariano 42, but that Mike Pagliarulo wore 13 and Tony Fernandez was the shortstop before Derek Jeter If we can’t tell you where we were for Bucky Dent’s home run–in my case because I hadn’t been born yet–we can tell you where we were on October 17, 2003 when Aaron Boone inscribed his name in immortality’s ink.

We’re Yankee fans because it’s often in our blood, passed down from fathers to daughters, mothers to sons, as much as it is the traditional way. The Yankees are our family (extended as it might be) and you care about your family.

Sure, we have our faults. We may have a strange obsession with acquiring jewelry in late October, might be slightly blasphemous when we hail Rivera as a deity and yes, on occasion might get a little pushy on the subway. That does not mean we are apathetic.

So, yes, the Texas Rangers are in the 2010 World Series and the Yankees are not. It happens. It’s baseball. There are up and down years (and no, reaching the ALCS does not technically count as a down year), you take the good with the bad.

Thing is, no matter what, come next spring, the Yankees will be playing again, and we’ll be watching.

Watching, living, breathing baseball.

Anything else, for a Yankee fan, is simply unacceptable.


The 2010 Yankee Superlatives

(You can vie last year’s here)

Best Grit: Brett “Grit is my middle name” Gardner. What pushed him over the edge? the head-first slide that started the eighth inning rally to win game one of the ALCS.

The First Annual PBP Award for Awareness: Robinson Canó. We are now aware.

Best Dancer: Curtis Granderson and the Roll Call Heart Attack Dance. Should audition for next season’s So You Think You Can Dance

Knock on Wood Award Kerry Wood, oh how we’ll miss you…

Hey Now, You’re An All Star, Get Your Game On, Go Play: Nick Swisher and his winning of the All Star Final Vote category in the American League

Best Reason to get mad excited that Jesus is coming: Francisco Cervelli.

Best use of a Cat: Lance Berkman, the Big Puma.

Best Name: Ivan Nova. ‘Nuff said.

Matchups are overrated: First half Boone Logan and 8th inning Joba Chamberlain. Oh Joba, how we miss the Joba of August/September 2007 and the unlivable-up-to hype….

Life, The Universe, and Everything: 42.


PBP Livechat: We Left Our Hearts in San Francisco


The Yankee Outfield was Pretty Good

Coming into the 2010 season, there did not seem to be a whole lot of questions for the defending World Series champions.

One of the questions, however, centered around the Opening Day outfield: Brett Gardner had not been much more than a fourth outfielder last season who lost his job to Melky Cabrera, Nick Swisher had some crazy home/road splits, and there were doubts over whether or not Curtis Granderson would really make up for the loss of one of the Yankees’ top prospects, Austin Jackson.

By season’s end, however, the view of the outfield was quite different: Nick Swisher was an All Star, Brett Gardner was one of the team’s most valuable players, and Granderson simply went on a late-season tear.

So what did the Yankee fielders do? Let’s take a look.

The Breakout

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Brett Gardner was a walk on at the College of Charleston; when he first made his MLB appearance the main asset he was supposed to provide was his speed.

While Gardner still has plenty of that, his speed was not nearly as important as his team-leading .383 on base percentage. It’s not often that your team’s ninth hitter gets on base more frequently than anyone else–even your MVP-caliber second baseman–but this is exactly what Gardner provided.

One area of future concern, however, is that Gardner’s stats dropped phenomenally in the second half. While it’s entirely possible that a lingering injury may be partly at fault, the worry is that the first half of 2010 is Gardner’s high point.

We’ll know more in 2011, but at any rate, even with the second half decline the Yankees got far more out of Gardner–offensively and defensively than almost anyone might have expected–except for Gardner himself.

The All Star

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In many ways, Nick Swisher is the hero of Michael Lewis’s Moneyball (okay, so Billy Beane is the protagonist, but Swisher is the guy you actually end up liking), and he has always had tremendous potential value.

The difference, however, is that in 2010, Swisher put it all together. He has career highs in hits, batting average, slugging and OPS–signifying that Swisher wasn’t just hitting, but hitting for power–and was one shy of thirty home runs as well.

Like Gardner, Swisher had a second half slump as well, but if you’ve got an OPS of .833 when you’re slumping, that’s not really an awful thing. In fact, Swisher’s second half slump is most noticeable in September, when the Yankees as a whole had a horrible month.

As Swisher will be entering his age 30 season in 2011, his career years may be past him, but he is still very much in his prime, very much loved by fans (especially those in right field) and, we know, now capable of an All Star season as well.

The Dancer

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There’s really no other way to say this: until Curtis Granderson went to hitting Kevin Long for help, he was having a horrible season (missing most of May to an injury, as well). It’s easily reflected in his splits here.

However, once Granderson revamped his swing it was almost as if the Yankees had just gotten an extra player–and one who was a spark in the playoffs, to boot. He hit much better batting second than later in the order, but small sample size and pitcher-handedness caveats should be employed.

If Granderson’s revamped swing holds over winter an works again in the spring, the trade that sent Austin Jackson and Phil Coke to Detroit may go from being a bust to a good one; the jury’s still out.

all the pictures are mine


The Best Moments of the 2010 Yankee Season

Although it’s never too soon to start planning for 2011, there will be plenty time to discuss that later. For the moment, on the theme of hey-it-wasn’t-such-a-bad-year, here are my top ten moments of the 2010 Yankees’ season.

Honorable Mentions: Kim Jones’s porkchop incident, Jorge Posada hits two grand slams in two days, Brett Gardner hits a grand slam in an eleven run outburst inning vs. Toronto, A-Rod grand slamming after Mark Teixeira is intentionally walked on multiple occasions…

10. Hope Week Returns

The Yankees might be the big, bad, evil empire…but for the second year running they showed just how big that Yankee heart can be while honoring those whose ability to overcome various disabilities or obstacles inspire hope in so many of us. Some things are bigger than baseball, and HOPE week is a tradition that we all hope may continue.

9. Golson’s gun

Greg Golson was a bench player, a spare body to come in as a late inning defensive replacement or pinch runner. No one really expected much more from him, but on a September night in Tampa, he may have been responsible for the best defensive play of the year.

Closer Mariano Rivera had been struggling (buh?) that month, and the Yankees were nursing a one run lead over the Tampa Bay Rays. When Matt Joyce hit a fly ball to right field, it was an “okay, we can live with this” second out–or so we thought. Carl Crawford, who was on second base, did as we thought he would and tagged up, trying to get to third base. At this point, Golson unleashed a perfect throw, all the way across the diamond, right into A-Rod’s waiting glove. Game, set, match.

8. 600

Bruised shins and banged up calves may have marred Rodriguez’s season, but the Yankee third baseman still has the power to wow, like he did on a Wednesday afternoon game. There were a couple funky notes to his becoming the youngest person ever to hit 600 home runs:

It was the third year anniversary of his 500th home run, and the same starting pitcher–Phil Hughes–was on the mound for the Yankees.

Over the previous weekend, the Yankees had first inning, two-run home runs in multiple games, only to go on and lose almost all of those. Rodriguez’s home run? A first inning, two-run home run (the Yankees won).

7. Papelbad, Part One

Is there a better way to ingratiate yourself as a member of the Yankees than hitting a home run in your first at bat? How about an extra-inning home run that gives the Yankees a lead up in Boston in the first series of the season? Curtis Granderson did both of these, which no doubt built him his fair share of post-trade good will. The moment was huge, but what may have been bigger was that, as the Yankees’ new center-fielder, Granderson helped anchor an outfield that may have been the best the Yankees have had in years. Their defense, coupled with the offensive breakout of Brett Gardner and All Star campaign of Nick Swisher was far more than the Yankees could have possibly expected back in March.

6. The Awareness of Robinson Canó

It’s impossible to pick just one moment or one play for Robinson Canó. That’s how good his season was this year. Truth be told, he was great last year, but for one fluke or another, couldn’t hit with runners on base. This year, however, was a much different story. Canó was the most valuable Yankee, and it wasn’t even close. Whether a grand slam after an intentional walk or a defensive play that looked so easy you almost think you can do it, Canó was owning it.

If you’re a Yankee fan, you are no longer unaware of the team’s superstar second baseman.

5. Behold the power of Colin

Coming into a game to pinch hit is hard enough. Coming in to pinch hit when it’s mid-count and you have two strikes on you is even harder. Now, try doing it as a rookie. Tough, right?

Well, not according to Colin Curtis, who blasted a three-run home run while pinch hitting for Brett Gardner. The Yankees went on to win the game–one of the few Javy Vazquez games that Yankee fans will remember fondly from the 2010 season.

4. Mariano Miracle

At this point, there’s probably nothing more that Mariano Rivera can do to amaze us. In the postseason, in the regular season, it is as though Yankee fans are watching an immortal when the otherwise-very-humble Rivera steps on the mound. Yet, for all the accolades, Rivera still had yet another trick up his sleeve in Arizona.

In the bottom of the tenth inning, after the Yankees had taken an extra-inning lead, after a single, double and intentional walk, the bases were loaded with no one out and Rivera was in his second inning of work.

That’s when Rivera got down to business: a foul out, a pop out and a strike out that ended the game.

It makes us wonder: is there anything the great Rivera can’t do?

3. Sunday Night Surprise

The 2009 Yankees left their mark via the late-inning comeback and walk off. The 2010 Yankees hadn’t done that much, but on this Sunday night in Los Angeles, it felt as though the Yankees stuck a season’s worth of comebacks all into one evening.

The ninth inning play by play:

M Teixeira struck out swinging
A Rodriguez singled; A Rodriguez to second on fielder’s indifference
R Canó doubled; A Rodriguez scored
J Posada singled; A Rodriguez to third
J Posada to second on fielder’s indifference
C Granderson walked
C Huffman singled; R Canó and J Posada scored, C Granderson to third
C Curtis grounded out to first; C Granderson scored, C Huffman to second

The Yankees took the lead on a two-run extra inning home run from Robinson Canó, and the most dramatic comeback win of the regular season was secured.

2. Swisher honors the Boss

Ever have to go back to work after a death in the family? It’s hard. Yet, this is what the Yankees were tasked with doing after George Steinbrenner and Bob Sheppard passed on over the All Star break.

The game was a catharsis; while the tributes to The Boss and Bob Sheppard were moving, the game itself was a tense, playoff-like atmosphere. Although Derek Jeter had a chance to win it in the bottom of the ninth, it feels almost fitting that instead it came down to Swisher, someone who’s loose, fun demeanor may have been precisely what the Yankees needed, because once you’re done mourning, you still need to go on living…

1. Papelbad, Part Two

One gets the feeling that absolutely everything could go wrong in the Yankee season, but if the team is still better than the Red Sox, you can live with it.

So it was this evening, when the Yankees had a 5-0 lead, then blew it in the latter innings, only to recover with a game tying home run from Alex Rodriguez, and a game winning home run from Marcus Thames. The game echoed the pre-2004 sentiments long expressed in the Yankee/Red Sox rivalry: that no matter how hard the Red Sox tried, the Yankees would still somehow find a way to win the game.

To do it versus Jonathan Papelbon, of course, just makes it that much better.


Requiem

Congratulations to the Texas Rangers. They outplayed the Yankees in pretty much every aspect of the game and every bit deserve their trip to the World Series.

The Yankees had a great season.

No, it wasn’t their year to go all the way, but they still played more games than twenty-six other baseball teams. Only those Yankee fans who think that it is written in stone that the Yankees will win a World Series every year can argue the season was a failure.

The Yankees played through the death of their principle owner and the death of their PA announcer for the entire second half of the twentieth century, and then some. They played through injuries to their starting catcher, third baseman, third starter, center fielder and designated hitter. They played through all of these in baseball’s toughest division and took until the last day of the regular season to settle for the Wild Card.

There are moments we will remember in seasons yet to come–Thames’ walk off against Jonathan Papelbon, Nick Swisher’s walk off the first game after George Steinbrenner passed away, Robinson Canó’s MVP-caliber season, Greg Golson’s throw out of Carl Crawford to end a key game, the five run ninth inning come back against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and others. For a season that may have come to a disappointing end, it did not lack for its moments.

Then there was also this: the giant steps taken by the farm system of a team who not so long ago had Eric Duncan as their best prospect. Right now, the crown jewel would be Jesus Montero, who was believed to be the key to a deal for Cliff Lee before the Rangers jumped in, but there are prospects at almost every level that were worth the watching. Where the system goes from here, through the off season, next year and beyond should be a fascinating follow…and some day, when Montero becomes the best hitter on the Yankees (so we hope), we’ll be talking about how we remember him taking his swings in Tampa, Trenton and Scranton.

The future, though, is bright. It’d be bright if only because we know they’ll play again, but it is bright also because there’s the feeling that Phil Hughes and Brett Gardner and perhaps Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson have their best years ahead of them, because Mark Teixeira and Robinson Canó and CC Sabathia will still be in their prime, because the potential in Jesus Montero and the Killer B’s, even if the latter are two-three years away, is that great, because Kevin Long can probably work his magic with anyone, because it looks like Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera will attempt to give us at least one more go around, and because Cashman probably has another miracle trade or three up his sleeve.

So winter came to New York a little earlier than we would have liked this year, but in the end, when they ask if it was worth it, I’d say, unequivocally, that it was.


ALCS Game Five, as told via visual media

View the complete set, including the greatest A-Rod shot ever (well, okay, maybe not) at http://flickr.com/firerosearien

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Grab the Nostalgia Train

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Honor America

Read the rest of this entry »


Season on the Brink

The game came apart when Mark Teixeira came apart.

The life of the offense, the team and the ballpark seemed to come undone after Teixeira strained his hamstring running to first. The shock of the almost catastrophic injury (in the postseason, any injury to a regular starter may, perhaps, be termed such) was still in full play when Joe Girardi began a series of managerial blunders that hurt the Yankees on the field, and perhaps killed their season.

In list form, you could argue the choices:

1) Starting Francisco Cervelli
2) Not PH-ing for Cervelli in the fourth inning
3) IBBing Murphy
4) Not pulling Burnett
5) The choices of bullpen relievers–
6) Especially going to Mitre, and not Mariano Rivera in the ninth. Even a four run game can be tied with one swing.
7) PH-ing for Berkman in the eighth. This one I’m not sold on–not sure who you would pinch hit with, but even Austin Kearns may have been a better choice than a right handed Berkman.

We could start with Nelson Cruz going to second on a fly-out, but in my mind it was the intentional walk of Murphy with two outs that did it. An intentional walk to bring up Bengie Molina would have, maybe, been okay if Girardi had removed Burnett after the batter, after nearly Ankiel-ing one of the intentional walk pitches. Girardi, however, left Burnett in the game, and one pitch later, an evening of solid work was completely undone by a no-doubt-about-it home run.

Enter the Yankee bullpen, which, aside from David Robertson (who was himself the goat last night), was simply flat-out awful, turning a two run deficit again into a seven run deficit. Sure, the Yankee offense had plenty of missed opportunities, but at least with a two run deficit there is still some semblance of hope. Not so much seven.

So what now?

Do we prepare for a funeral tomorrow? The Rangers have outplayed the Yankees in every inning but the eighth of game one, and the Rangers are certainly a good enough team to win the World Series. That said, teams have come back from 3-1 deficits before–of recent memory, the Boston Red Sox did it in 2004 and 2007 (yes, I know, it feels filthy to aspire to do something a Boston team has done, but in this case, that is the task before them.)

Right now, the Yankees just need to worry about tomorrow. They need Sabathia to do what he hasn’t done and pitch well, and the bats to do what they haven’t done and hit. They need to just flat out win tomorrow, get the series back to Texas, and give New York one more day of baseball.


Keep Calm and Carry On

So that game didn’t go exactly as planned.

You can divvy it up however you want, but the honest truth is that Phil Hughes did not pitch like a Game Two starter is supposed to pitch, and Colby Lewis did–at least enough to keep the Yankees unbalanced and make his pitches when he had to.

So now the Yankees head back to New York City, with the ALCS tied at one game a piece, and Cliff Lee slated to pitch on Monday and AJ Burnett on Tuesday.

Some, such as Ian O’Connor, might argue it’s time to panic.

Here’s why you shouldn’t.

1) Cliff Lee is not unbeatable, even in the postseason.

In Game Five of last year’s World Series, Lee pitched seven innings, allowing seven hits and five runs, all earned. No, the Yankees did not win that game–but that had more to do with AJ Burnett’s poor start than Lee’s good one, which wasn’t actually a good start. If you remember the Yankees almost completed a ninth-inning come back.

More recently, this August, Lee pitched six-and-a-third innings, allowing eight hits and four runs.

Cliff Lee is a very, very good pitcher. He has mind-boggling numbers in the majority of his postseason starts. He is not unbeatable.

2) Andy Pettitte will be on the mound for the Yankees on Monday, opposing Lee.

Name me another Yankee starter you’d rather have on the hill in the postseason in a Game Three scenario.

3) AJ Burnett is not an automatic loss.

First of all, to get it out of the way, if the Yankees are down 1-2 going into Tuesday’s game, it’s entirely possible Sabathia pitches on short rest. Of course, the Yankees would prefer that from occurring, but let’s say AJ does pitch Game Four.

Last year, at home in the postseason, Burnett was fantastic.

In three starts at Yankee Stadium, in a total of nineteen innings, Burnett allowed four runs. While past performance does not guarantee future performance, it should be of some comfort to know that it’s not as though Burnett has never pitched a postseason game at Yankee Stadium, or never pitched a decent one.

Tommy Hunter, good as he may be, is not Sandy Koufax, and the Yankees’ A lineup is, well, pretty good. They don’t need Burnett to be perfect, they need him to give their lineup a chance.

4) The bullpen has been fantastic.

The Yankees have, through five postseason games thus far, allowed just three runs in the sixth inning or later, and two of those in the sixth inning itself in games one and two of the ALDS. Otherwise, seventh inning on, with the exception of one run in the 8th inning of ALCS Game Three–a game the Yankees led by a considerable margin–the bullpen has been flawless.

Mariano, of course, is Mariano, and David Robertson has taken to pitching in the postseason like a fish in water, but Boone Logan had been great, Kerry Wood’s been good enough, Dustin Moseley was nothing short of heroic on Friday night and Joba Chamberlain’s been good himself.

TBS threw out a stat about the Yankees and the great scoring disparity when it comes to the seventh inning or later–the excellence of the Yankee bullpen has more than a little to do with it.

5) Home Sweet Home

The ALCS is returning to the Bronx, and since the Yankees still can clinch in five games, they have the home field advantage.

Texas, good as they are, pitches worse on the road and hits worse, too.

You can argue that it’s a moot point because it clearly didn’t hurt the Rangers in Tampa, but Yankee Stadium is still Yankee Stadium. Even if it doesn’t hurt the Rangers, it will (theoretically) help the Yankees.

The ALCS has now become a Best-of-Five series, and hey, if you have Andy Pettitte going in Game One of a Best of Five, it’s not the end of the world. Far from it.

The Yankees have been here before; they know what to do.

Keep calm, and carry on.


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